Nobody likes to admit that Sean McVay is the real deal, but I have never understood that. I grant you that he has done a few things along the way that perhaps put a target on his back, as has also been the case for his fellow young coaches of the NFC West: Mr. Shanahan with his flat-billed caps and Mr. Kingsbury with just about everything in his arsenal. Mr. McVay, for instance, decided to go shirt-off in the pool in Hard Knocks with his dog, his model lady friend and his well-styled hair. He will not soon be mistaken for Bill Parcells, but you best believe he knows ball. If the Cowboys didn’t learn in October 2017 or January 2019, they were taught again in September 2020. The offense he runs has had the Cowboys absolutely running into each other three different times on three different fields in the last 36 months.
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I would say that is a trend.
Here are the four contests. While there was an outlier last season when the Rams were not acting themselves, the other three games all featured 400-yard days. Maybe the only face-saving element of Sunday is that somehow the Cowboys did not concede 20 points despite giving up 422 yards. That won’t happen often. When you go over 400 yards and get smoked on third downs, too, the odds are good you gave up 30 points.
But if you read my work, you know one reason the Rams get me so excited about their offense is they use a lot of design that makes them great. They seem to be special, not because they have special talents — which many would argue that Todd Gurley or Jared Goff were at one point, although scrutiny and time seem to push back — but because their scheme is so incredibly simple and yet nearly impossible to slow down.
If you ever see players looking at photos on the sideline, they are always looking at one from pre-snap and then another from what the play appeared to be. I have stolen the term from coaching circles about how the perfect offense that marries a run game with a passing game is best called “complex simplicity.” Here is what it looks like:
This is a 20-yard pass.
This is a 31-yard pass.
This is an 18-yard pass to a running back.
Jared Goff threw for an easy 275 yards on Sunday and was nearly unstoppable on first down. Is it because he was awesome and the Cowboys can’t cover downfield?
You be the judge.
Here is Goff on first down from Next Gen:
He passed for 99 yards on first down with just 16 air yards and the rest after the catch.
Staggering! Check the reel below to see how it all works with horizontal stretch, pre-snap motion, misdirection to both flanks and then incredibly simple throws and catches, followed by easy yards on early downs.
Why? Because you are trying to stop run plays that almost always start with a nice run fake.
Sean McVay and early down "complex simplicity" – High percentage throws based on horizontal stretching, misdirection, and everything looking identical at the snap. Notice all 11 players so close to each-other. pic.twitter.com/X4rXztUMSM
— Bob Sturm (@SportsSturm) September 16, 2020
The linebackers are spinning like tops as they try to find the ball. The QB almost never has to throw a difficult pass.
It is maddening to defend, but you can see the design of Shanahan, Kingsbury and McVay are all based on the same premise: Make playing quarterback easy and safe, and use early downs to destroy morale as well as to keep third downs from being difficult.
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When it is working, it is beautiful.
So, how do you stop it? Well, let’s start by saying it is much easier said than done.
WEEKLY DATA
As you can see, the underlying numbers offer mixed reviews. Some will simply look at 20 points and dust off their hands that “the defense did its job,” but I think we have to dig a bit deeper. The Cowboys spent the whole first half on the field and gave up nine third downs. That can’t happen. Allowing 422 yards is also a recipe for disaster.
I would give the defense a very low grade, too. I realize 20 points allowed makes people offer a simplistic grade, but there were too many issues to do anything better than a C-minus or so. That was pretty disappointing given how badly they were dominated.
QB NEXT-GEN THROW CHART
We can debate Goff’s merits, but again, he is driving a Ferrari. Look at his throws. He hit a few beauties, but overall, it is the two flats off play-action all night and then staying out of third downs, when you see more complex problems that cause pocket issues and sacks.
Well, guess what: You can’t get sacked if you get rid of the ball. The Rams’ offense is a quick game that wants a point guard more than a quarterback.
Robert Woods is a star, and the Rams have many other interchangeable parts that can hurt you inside the scheme.
Now, these Next Gen NFL stats are based on player tracking. So, fair warning, these are “closest or nearest defender” and not necessarily the player who was assigned to the receiver. Sometimes he is covering for someone, and sometimes it is an anomaly. But this data tells a story or two, such as Trevon Diggs struggling in a few snaps, as well as making one phenomenal play.
Big day for Chidobe Awuzie, who secured a key takeaway. Well played.
EXPLOSIVES
Splash Plays – Week 1
Q – Time | D/D | Player | Splash |
---|---|---|---|
1-13:01 | 2/1/06 | Poe – Griffen | Run Stuff |
1-7:51 | 2/2/25 | Woods – A Smith | Run Stuff |
1-6:19 | 1/10/50 | Lawrence | Pass Batted Down |
1-1:32 | 1/10/16 | A Smith | Run Stuff |
2-10:22 | 2/4/23 | Griffen | Run Stuff |
2-8:50 | 3/15/17 | Griffen | Pass Batted Down |
2-4:36 | 2/6/47 | Hill – A Smith | Run Stuff |
2-2:39 | 3/4/15 | Thomas | 3rd Down Stop |
3-11:24 | 1/10/15 | Thomas | Run Stuff |
3-7:20 | 1/10/26 | Hill – A Smith | Run Stuff |
3-3:58 | 3/7/30 | Awuzie | Interception |
3-0:38 | 3/3/32 | J Smith | Pass Batted Down |
4-7:13 | 3/10/48 | A Smith | Sack |
4-3:20 | 3/3/47 | Diggs | 3rd Down Stop |
Each week we will tally up the “season to date.” Everything below is fine except it appears we have a picture of the wrong Joe Thomas. Otherwise, here are our standings:
Season Totals - 2020 Splash Plays
Player | Total Splashes |
---|---|
3.5 | |
2.5 | |
2 | |
1 | |
1 | |
1 | |
1 | |
1 | |
0.5 | |
0.5 |
Finally, let’s look at a few more important things.
RAMS OFFENSE BY DOWN
I want to show you this because people are worried about running on first down. Well, the Rams had 31 first-down plays and ran 20 times, which set up the other 11 as mostly play-action passes with big gains and a 71-percent success down.
Then a balanced second-down approach: 22 plays with 12 runs.
What does that do? It keeps you out of third-and-long, whichtakes away any exotic pressure looks Dallas wanted to bring with their new defensive line and blitzing treatments.
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The plan was to blitz on third downs and especially third-and-long. Well, here is the problem: The Cowboys never had the Rams in third-and-long.
You want to stay ahead of the chains and on schedule. That means you win first down and second down so third down is 3rd-and-4. That is a pretty basic reason Dallas didn’t get a big sack night against Los Angeles. Why are the Rams good at avoiding sacks? They are never behind the chains, converting third downs, only four of which required seven more yards. Incredible work on early downs with misdirection game.
By the way, the Cowboys sack came on a 3rd-and-10 where they could unleash Aldon Smith, Everson Griffen, Tyrone Crawford and DeMarcus Lawrence. Smith, who is quite a story, played DT in that set and was our Week 1 Defensive MVP.
The Defensive MVP of Week 1 – the Aldon Smith Show pic.twitter.com/1fFgWut5S7
— Bob Sturm (@SportsSturm) September 16, 2020
I thought it was all a joke when they signed him on April 1st, but wow, was he good on Sunday with extraordinary work on the edge, often in a two-point stance just clobbering some poor tight end or two in his path.
The bad news that we aren’t sure who finished second for this award. Diggs showed me a lot to like, and Trysten Hill flashed, but for the most part, the defense was not good enough. Jaylon Smith was disappointing. D-Law was pretty quiet. Overall, they looked confused and tentative on Sunday. And now Leighton Vander Esch is gone for a long while, too.
They need a response, and a quick one, before the concerns grow. The good pieces are there, but the Rams easily neutralized them.
(Photo: Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)